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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd